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At poker, especially among better players, there is often a
dynamic tension between two big ideas: How Will It Look and How Will It Be.  You
will often want to fool your opponents into thinking you have a hand that you
don’t have — misrepresenting it with your action.  But you also need to
consider the consequences of fooling your opponent.  In other words, just
fooling your opponent into thinking your hand is other than it is isn’t enough.
You must consider what the product of your action on the other person will be.
Sometimes it is in your interest to fool him; sometimes it isn’t.

I’ll give you some examples of this and then explain how to use these two
concepts to guide your own play.

The game is limit holdem.  You hold Js Ts in late position.  Four people have
called the $5 Big Blind in this $2/$5 blind game.  You are deciding whether to
call, raise, or fold.

You’ve ruled out folding.  Js Ts is a strong hand in late position with many
players calling.  But should you raise?

If you raise, it will look as if you have a strong hand — a big pair or AK
most probably.  Deception, you know, is good.  And maybe you’ll get other
players to fold, increasing the chances that you’ll win the pot.  So maybe you
should raise.

But wait a second.  What will be likely to happen if you raise?  You are
highly unlikely to get everyone to fold.  They have already called for the Big
Blind. Some of the many players will surely conclude that since they are only
calling a partial bet, that they might as well call your raise.  "In for a
penny, in for a pound," they will think.

You will also be costing yourself a double bet instead of a single bet.  So
you will need to win the hand much more frequently for the bet to make sense.
But with what is fundamentally a drawing hand, you generally don’t want to make
it expensive for yourself to enter a pot.  You want to get in cheaply, draw
cheaply, so the odds the pot is giving you are increased.

You must conclude that although you can misrepresent your hand and fool your
opponent with a raise, you shouldn’t.

Here’s another example, this one from stud.  You have (4s4d)As.  Four players
have folded to you.  Two players and the bring-in remain.  How will it look if
you raise?  How about if you call?  And then you must consider how it will be if
you raise vs. how it will be if you call.  Do you want the product of whatever
manipulation you can achieve?

If you raise it will appear that you have a pair of Aces. Others won’t be
certain that you do, but they’ll have to be concerned that you might.  They may
well fold to your raise
– something you’d like with only a pair of 4s.  On the other hand, if they
call, you still have a number of ways of winning money.  They may catch bad and
you may catch a scare card.  You may catch a 4. You may catch an Ace.

In any case, it is in your interest to limit the field — which your raise
will do if it doesn’t win you the pot outright.  Fours with an Ace kicker plays
well heads up.  If you catch a second pair you are likely to win the hand
against one opponent.  On the other hand, just calling doesn’t really help you
– as you will be likely to be against a number of opponents – all of whom might
well improve to a better hand on the next card. You’ll be unlikely to knock them
all out of the hand without something legitimate on the next card.  So a scare
card won’t help you– since you’ll need to beat more than just one opponent.

At the lower limits it usually isn’t necessary to worry too much about how a
move will look.  You are betting for value nearly all the time because you have
no faith that your opponents are good enough, observant enough, or disciplined
enough to respond to your move.  But as you play against better players you must
take their reaction into consideration.  Unfortunately, many otherwise solid
players become so enamored of their ability to mislead their opponents that they
fall in love with a move — even if it is unlikely to actually improve their
chances of winning money.  They semi-bluff and slowplay because they can,
without recognizing that they can fool their opponents into an action that
doesn’t work to their advantage.

It’s important to understand not just what your hand might look like based on
your betting action, but what you are likely to produce with your action.  If
the product of your action isn’t a benefit to you, then the action itself isn’t
justified.  A raise that misleads your opponents into thinking you’re stronger
than you are and limits the field, when limiting the field isn’t in your
interest, is a mistake.  A call that gets you a cheap next card when you really
want to be limiting the field isn’t justified.

Source: Poker Magazine